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任重道远:The US March CPI data will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 ET on April 10th.

As Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted in his April 3 speech, the disinflation process is bumpy. March CPI report is likely to illustrate that point.Economists expect U.S. CPI to rise from 3.2% to 3.4% in March, while core CPI falls to 3.7% from 3.8%. CPI energy continued to rise year-on-year, and Brent crude oil futures prices reached a high of $90 per barrel for the first time since October last year, rising 18% this year. In addition, prices of other raw materials such as copper, aluminum and cocoa are also rising sharply. Rising housing-related items, insurance and investment management fees will also lead to a rebound in super-core inflation data. It may be unlikely to see inflation fall to the Fed's target in the short term.
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下茶话 / 工商经济 / 目前6月减息的几率仍然低于50%吧,主要原因是加拿大央行不会先于美联储减息。有人说实行了碳税通胀又上来了,今年减息无望,当然,这种可能性也是存在的,不过,我很想知道过晚减息会造成什么后果。
    • 耶伦受不了,美国政府的预算都还利息了。 +2
    • 别想减息了,石油,工业金属等等又在大涨,新一轮通涨又在路上了。 +7
    • 本来是每年涨5%,就变成未来一年涨25%。 +2
      • Elaborate please +1
        • 房价每五年涨25%。
      • 有人算过,在这轮通胀前,真实的通胀数据已经是2位数了。 +1
    • 6月减息我觉得基本无可能。 +4
      • 华尔街应该出手了,给点颜色看看。
        • 但股市一直没有出现暴跌,尚未看到减息征兆。
          • 你是怎么看的?老鲍鱼和Nick都重申今年降息3次的观点了,所以股市才没跌。
            • 他们嘴上讲没有用的,减息需要至少一个触发,目前美国的情况是,就业市场火爆,通胀高居不下,连股市还在攀升趋势,这样的情况很难触发联储局减息。
              • 失业率上升了,上次会议不是改口说了要平衡通胀和失业率嘛,更关键的是还没浮出水面的雷快要爆了。
      • 6月减息几率很小,今天一金融分析师说,加拿大从来没在美联储之前减过息,而加息经常早于美联储。美联储6月减息可能性几乎是零。下一个目标将是9月,确实,全年不减息可能性越来越大。但央行承受的风险也越来越大。
    • 是加是减主要看国际政治形势. 冲突不断,加息不止. +2
    • 实体经济撑不住,引发大量坏账,造成系统性风险。所以对央行来说,降息不降息,只是死法不同。我已经说了,要么被通胀烧死,要么被银根勒死。反正是死路一条。 +1
      • 既要,又要,肯定不行。中国的便宜车不让买,非要自己生产,能不通货膨胀吗?既要40万工资,又要2万块钱的汽车,属于自相矛盾。 +4
      • 加拿大死了你还有好吗?
    • CME FedWatch 预计6月降息的可能性是51% +1
      • “今天一金融分析师说,加拿大从来没在美联储之前减过息,而加息经常早于美联储。美联储6月减息可能性几乎是零。” +1
        • 加拿大的利率决议总是比美国早一些,6月份会早一星期,如果他们“预知”美国6月会减息,也许这次会比美联储提前,毕竟降息的紧迫性高于美国 +2
          • 美国6月份降息可能性好像不大。
          • 对,加拿大总是比美国早一周。提前一周应该比较明朗。我赌美国7月,加拿大7月又比美国早一周,万一行长判断错了,那就只能等9月补减。期待加国失业率再上一个台阶。
            • 不用期待,现在这个失业率已经够惨了,而且这些数据有滞后性,现在的所谓通胀是战争影响供应链造成的,央行把利息加到100也改变不了,加拿大经济早就进入衰退了。
    • 任重道远:The US March CPI data will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 ET on April 10th.
      As Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted in his April 3 speech, the disinflation process is bumpy. March CPI report is likely to illustrate that point.Economists expect U.S. CPI to rise from 3.2% to 3.4% in March, while core CPI falls to 3.7% from 3.8%. CPI energy continued to rise year-on-year, and Brent crude oil futures prices reached a high of $90 per barrel for the first time since October last year, rising 18% this year. In addition, prices of other raw materials such as copper, aluminum and cocoa are also rising sharply. Rising housing-related items, insurance and investment management fees will also lead to a rebound in super-core inflation data. It may be unlikely to see inflation fall to the Fed's target in the short term.