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我觉得次贷只是导火线而已, 背后的原因是美国太多的外债导致信誉下降, 投资者不在往美国投资, 导致整个美国市场缺乏资金。次贷只是最薄弱的环节, 之后其他领域的资金匮乏的问题将陆陆续续暴露出来。

但是当美国资产被低估价值之后, 将会重新吸引外资投资美国。 美国本家着火, 也牵扯着他的国外资本回流本土救急, 这两个原因将在中短期导致加拿大和美国之间的资金流动转向, 由美国->加拿大, 演变成 加拿大 -> 美国, 过去美国资产狂收购加拿大能源公司的现象会少很多, 而美国资产被加拿大(或其他强势外币)收购的情况会逐渐增加。 如果这种情况发生的话, 加拿大的房地产市场降温是注定的事情, 毕竟美国很多地方的房价都已经低于加拿大(用1:1比例来计算)。

水是总是往低处流的, 只不过房地产是固定资产, 它的价格将会在其他资产外流之后才会明显下跌。 所以房地产业是反应最迟钝的, 美元贬值和能源升值已经有很长一段时间了, 但导致美国房地产下跌也只是这2年的事情。 依据目前情况, 加拿大如果资金外流而导致房地产下跌, 可能要1, 2年之后了。

所以我觉得如果1,2年内不急于买房的, 租Apartment也未尝不可。
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下家园 / 美丽家居 / 又有大老在theStars上散布多伦多房室崩溃论了。--》
    • BS。现在的房价很健康。应积极入市。
    • 大老出了一本书来散布多伦多房室崩溃论. 而且此大老在1987年散布了同样的房室崩溃言论, 比真正的房价崩溃时间早了两年, 整整两年哪. 真该鄙视!
      • 这些人聪明是聪明,可是未必说真话。就像那个噶尔,天知道他是想全球变暖,还是自己钱包变暖。这种人说的话,看看听听就得了,信不得。
        • 问题是利益当前, 有几个会说真话呢? 该信谁呢?
    • 现在美国的金融形势已经到了自从大萧条以来最惨的境界,加拿大已经有好几家从事房贷业务的公司或者倒闭或者大裁员。不相信房市会下落,难道我们真的不撞南墙不回头吗?
      • 那家房贷公司倒闭了,裁员了?说出来呗。 让我们开开眼,看看茅坑到底是怎样挖出来的,谣言是怎样造出来的,好不好?
        • Please google "U.S. mortgage mess creeps north"
      • here is the article. U.S. mortgage mess creeps north (Globe and Mail, March 13)
        本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛U.S. mortgage mess creeps north
        TARA PERKINS AND LORI McLEOD
        From Thursday's Globe and Mail

        The effects of the U.S. subprime crisis are showing up on the fringe of the Canadian mortgage business, even though mainstream lending and the housing market are on solid ground.

        Lenders catering to riskier borrowers, most of whom took advantage of new financing techniques and a wave of liquidity to enter the market in the past few years, are struggling to fund their operations.

        The result is a slow retrenchment in a sector that held about 5 per cent of the Canadian mortgage market before the credit crunch spread from the United States in August.

        Some offices have been closed, employees have been let go, and fewer so-called alternative products are being offered to borrowers who do not qualify for regular loans.

        Toronto-based Xceed Mortgage Corp. yesterday suspended its line of uninsured mortgage products, effective immediately.

        Mississauga-based lender MoneyConnect Inc., meanwhile, told brokers last week that it's liquidating a portfolio of mortgages.

        Lenders in this sector that rely on securitization can't access financing to take on new mortgages, noted Jim Murphy, president of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals.

        That's creating new opportunities for the big banks and others who are moving in to fill the void.

        Last week, MoneyConnect posted a notice on its website informing mortgage brokers of a "warehouse clearance sale."

        The company, launched early last year, was created to originate and buy "non-conforming" home mortgage products on behalf of institutional investors and securitization providers - companies that package loans to sell them as bonds.

        But "our warehouse is full and due to ongoing turmoil in the capital markets, traditional investors simply aren't buying mortgages," it said on its website. As a result, it decided to "slash penalties and liquidate our warehouse portfolio."

        The company urged mortgage brokers to take its customers' mortgages and shop them around to new lenders. It offered to waive the prepayment penalty charge for some customers who were then able to pay off their mortgages.

        MoneyConnect warned in December that it would not approve more loans until further notice while it pursued new sources of funds. "Although the quality of mortgage credit in Canada continues to remain extremely strong and has not been a contributing factor to this global dilemma, a crisis of confidence exists with investors, which is preventing Canadian originators from accessing capital-markets-based funding," it said.

        Its chief executive officer, Maurice Forget, could not be reached yesterday. The privately held company is partly owned by its executives, a global investment bank, and Quanto Financial Corp., whose principal shareholders are Deutsche Bank (Canada), National Bank of Canada and Montreal-based private equity firm Redfern Equity Capital Partners.

        Shortly before the subprime crisis hit, MoneyConnect had been hoping to ride the "non-conforming" mortgage market, catering to customers who found it difficult to get bank financing. The company expected an annual industry growth rate of 50 per cent.

        Instead, the market has teetered of late. HSBC Financial Corp. Ltd. shut down its mortgage services operation here, closing dozens of locations and cutting about 300 jobs as it exited the subprime mortgage business in North America. GMAC Residential Funding of Canada cut about 70 employees. And Accredited Home Lenders, which could not be reached for comment, appears to have chopped its Canadian work force and stopped accepting new loan applications at its Toronto and Vancouver offices because it could not securitize the loans in Canada.

        Alex Haditaghi, chief executive officer of MortgageBrokers.com, said the departure of these lenders is a reflection of the collapse of mortgage securities, and not a sign of trouble in a robust Canadian mortgage market.

        One industry source said that "the big players, such as the major banks, are loving it because they're getting all the business back again."

        The decrease of uninsured mortgages has caused an increase in business for alternative lender Home Capital Group Inc., whose mortgages are insured by Canada Deposit Insurance Corp. and cover no more than 80 per cent of a home's value, CEO Gerald Soloway said.

        The entry of higher-risk mortgage providers into the conservative Canadian market was an anomaly, and he's happy to see things returning to the way they were.

        "I personally think ... this is a good thing for the economy long term, because we've seen the devastating effect it's had on the United States with mass foreclosures, mass evictions, great disruption. They thought they were doing a great gift for people letting them into a house with no money down. But I think in reality the disruption to society as a whole far outweighs that benefit."更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
      • 说了老半天,想买房的人还是要买,因为不确定房子会不会跌,跌的话跌多少,跌多久。但每月的租金可是百分百的支出,等于每月花千把块钱的成本等价格下跌,成本较高。
        我想只有看到确实的大面积房价跌了以后,才会放弃买房的想法。但真的跌了,也不见得会买,因为经济不稳,工作不稳,还要等经济复苏再说,估计也得几年以后的事了。
        • NO expense on house every month?
          • 有,但house的cash flow中有一部分是本金,扣去这部分,则要比租金省。
            • percentage or how much?
              • 10% extra is normal if renter want to use, enjoy the space as landlord in Toronto.look the data,chart from CMHC.
              • 就拿以前我的condo来算吧,租金1300, 那房子管理费370, mortgage $1100, 里面估计700利息,400本金,扣除本金,实际成本是1070, 要比租金便宜吧。后来换house的时候,虽然房价涨了不少,但condo卖时也涨了些,也就补贴了一部分。
                • 还多少本金和贷款期限有关. 如果贷款期限是40年, 前20年还的本金非常有限.
                  • 本金在25-40年还清仅仅占投资回报的小小部份,40年前2万买的屋现在可能卖100万。30 年前1。8万的新屋今日也值30 万了。鲤鱼要找的现金流为正的屋又让某某拿走了。贷款得到的话,这样的屋多多亦善。
                    • 30年的两室CONDO现在5万还可以买到. 当初不会不要钱白给吧.
                    • 30 年前1。8万的新屋今日也值30 万了. 这30年不会光住不维修保养吧. 这不是钱?
                      • if you bought it for yourself, you save around 10% compare to rent it , each year for 30 years, if you bought it for collecting rent, you make 10% of cash flow to start and make more cash flow when you paydown or payoff. you win in these two case
                        • where does this 10% come from? any details? 如果房地产只是简单的买了就赚, 也不会有人跳楼了.
                          • There's no perfect time to buy real estate. Even if say house prices drop 5-10% and hit the bottom, at that time interest rate will climb as the economy recovers. And sellers are less willing to negotiate.
                            Also, you would spend a few more years living in a rental apt rather than enjoying a big house. Is it really worth the wait? And what if the prices do not drop that much or even climb because of the low rates? It will cost you more
                          • 10% 为平均数。跳楼的那位属最倒霉的,-10% or less。cmhc 中有大量图表可供您参考。我目前>20%.
            • Are you sure?
    • 两年后我正好换大屋。Yeh!
    • 谁说小车不倒,咱这风景独好;谁说筵席终散,咱个个屁股粘牢;谁说人终将一死,咱还就长生不老!
    • 房市崩不崩除了对即将买房或卖房的以及搞地产投资的有影响外,对已买房并用来自住的人来说关系不大。
      • 怎么不大?现在你花40W买一工人新村的独立屋,再过半年你只花37W就能买到,到时候你就哭吧
        • 如果我是卖房的,那不乐了?
          • 卖房的赶紧吧.看最近MLS上的房子蜂拥而出
            • 4,5月的蜂拥的更多了
        • 楼价掉不掉是个未知数,总不能一直等吧,万一又升了呢。我觉得该买的还是得买,管它买了以后是升是跌,只要在我住了数年后想买的时候,房市是好的就行,管它期间是升是跌。
          • 现在的情况是降的可能性很大,能不买就不买吧
            • 都别买,谁也别买,我一个人买,多伦多就我一个买家,房价我说了算,那样房价真的大崩盘了,我就是多市的最大的地主,我是市长,不买房的租我的房去,我高兴,我激动,我害怕今晚睡不着
              这还没睡就做梦
              • 老兄留一份给我!虽然自住屋房价不管他降价与否,难道收租房就怕了?租金一年一订,且随通货膨胀上涨,房价降更有利于获取正向现金流。几年前那老大在黄金$200+时号召大家别投资黄金..看一看今日金价!
            • 明白你的意思了,想卖房的现在要赶快卖,想买房的现在不要买。
            • 翻来覆去还不是美国次贷那几个老原因. 想想房价是怎样涨上来的吧,低利率是最主要原因, 你觉得最近几年利率有升的可能吗?笑话
              • 高房价, 低利率和低房价, 高利率, 对买房的人来说, 每月的负担是差不多的. 而后者对买房的人风险要小得多. 这次房价上涨, 主要是贷款审批不严, 让买不起房的人买了房, 人为的造成虚假的需求, 导致价格飞涨.
                • 话都对,但拿美国的房市趋势来指导在加拿大买房决策有些不太对。加拿大的问题的贷款里没有像美国那样严重的次贷问题。但有不少金融机构有参与次贷投资的会有损失。
                  加拿大房价高企会受加拿大购买力影响。所以现在的预测都是持平或略走低,这些并不会影响自住房的购买意向。房产投资可能会等一等。特别在大多地区,除了看海外热钱还不够,这里是各国新移民主要登陆地,他们对房价有个支撑作用。
                  • 新移民的支撑作用有限, 加拿大放宽移民政策已经10多年了, 而2001年前的房价还比较平稳。 我觉得还是海外热钱的作用吧, 加拿大的能源吸引了无数资金导致整个市场资金流动性非常充分。
                    • 是有限,可能不足以让房市疯涨,不过和热钱比,需求比较稳定,来的人很多就住下了,只要每年移民呈净流入,就是每年新增需求,不像热钱,来了就走,不构成长期需求,只增加波动而已
                      热钱看中加拿大能源,那也不错,看样子石油价格一时半会儿也不会跌到那去,那热钱岂不是还要再留一段时间再说? 你想想,美国,日本要衰退,中国也要减速,那热钱出了加拿大要找一好去处也不易呀
                      • 其实多伦多的经济增长率还是很低的, 对应这些年房价的疯涨只能用能源效应来解释了, 新移民的增多只是其中小部分的原因吧。 不过目前的资金流向不明, 如果热钱涌出加拿大的话, 加币下跌是个指示牌。美元下跌导致美国本国资金流动性下降, 而最终导致次贷资金链的断裂。
                        • 这次经济危机波及面广,连发展中国家的如中国,俄罗斯,印度都会受影响,brazil是能源,原材料出口会好一些。加币现在更多的是能源货币,
                          加币涨还是跌,一看能源价格,二看和美国息差,三看自身经济。作为能源和其它原材料净出口国,我想加拿大经济会比美国稍好一些。

                          美国的次贷问题还有商业银行在低利率环境下过于贪心,放宽贷款标准的失误,不能全赖greenspan老人家。
                          • 我觉得次贷只是导火线而已, 背后的原因是美国太多的外债导致信誉下降, 投资者不在往美国投资, 导致整个美国市场缺乏资金。次贷只是最薄弱的环节, 之后其他领域的资金匮乏的问题将陆陆续续暴露出来。
                            但是当美国资产被低估价值之后, 将会重新吸引外资投资美国。 美国本家着火, 也牵扯着他的国外资本回流本土救急, 这两个原因将在中短期导致加拿大和美国之间的资金流动转向, 由美国->加拿大, 演变成 加拿大 -> 美国, 过去美国资产狂收购加拿大能源公司的现象会少很多, 而美国资产被加拿大(或其他强势外币)收购的情况会逐渐增加。 如果这种情况发生的话, 加拿大的房地产市场降温是注定的事情, 毕竟美国很多地方的房价都已经低于加拿大(用1:1比例来计算)。

                            水是总是往低处流的, 只不过房地产是固定资产, 它的价格将会在其他资产外流之后才会明显下跌。 所以房地产业是反应最迟钝的, 美元贬值和能源升值已经有很长一段时间了, 但导致美国房地产下跌也只是这2年的事情。 依据目前情况, 加拿大如果资金外流而导致房地产下跌, 可能要1, 2年之后了。

                            所以我觉得如果1,2年内不急于买房的, 租Apartment也未尝不可。
                            • 我非常同意你这个观点。
                            • 这也是我看跌,但不是短期的原因
                            • 我已经有同事乘机退休去美国置业了
                            • 美国这么大经济体,很难把问题简单化,美国两逆差确实是一个原因,但出口逆差这么多年了,很难说现在的逆差刚刚达到让货币贬值的critical mass level. 美国的流通性问题更多的是银行出于次贷问题开始借贷来提高贷款质量以及出售资产来补充资本金,
                              这引起整个货币供应减少。也因此有人怀疑feb减息的效果,因为解决问题的核心是货币供应量本身而不是货币供应价格(利息)。

                              即便加拿大维持和美国利差(即和美国保持同步减息幅度,现在是美国减得比加拿大快),石油价格也维持高位,并不会出现大量热钱跑出去。

                              最后一点,关于买房的想法。如果房子下跌要一,二年后。对购自住房的人来说,还是很难下决心。一是租金,如果一个月1000, 一年就是1.2万。如果一年后房子开始下跌,如果几个月内猛的跌到底到好说(可能性也不大),要是慢慢阴跌,可以这么一算,买房就遥遥无期了。
                • no, and no, supply and demand is the only thing to make the price go up or down, if population grow 20% in the next 25 years, the supply of land grow zero%, the house price will have to grow, no matter what prime rate is
                  • 你去附近看看是不是supply of land会没用地方?只不过开发商是不是愿意去建房了。还是又回到demand的问题上,只要有demand,肯定会有房子。
                    • 土地用途是政府严格规划的,不是有块空地就能盖房的。
                      • Land Zoning is very new to some Rolian.Zoning department is not a street vender, you can not buy a piece of land and build anything you like. if you have vacant land in downtown Toronto, please sell it to me.
              • 前半句有点小道理,后半句没有道理!
    • 加币前些日子的升势不在, 上周还狂跌, 预示热炒加拿大能源的资金有撤出回流美国的迹象, 如果这种趋势能确立, 加拿大的房价必跌无疑. 不过我觉得加币的小量回调是很可能的.