我在TURN上的分析及选择 -limithe(limithe) @曼省华人论坛:曼省枫下论坛 The Rolia Forum of Manitoba

枫下沙龙 / 休闲娱乐 / 夜战RAMA归来，给POKER同好们讲两手牌，大家一起切磋提高。 -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-4 {1864} (#5168917@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛|--------------------------------------|
| 赌博有害于身心健康 |
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本人赌性不小，近两年专攻poker。可惜屡战屡败，屡败屡战。不过这是向职业poker选手迈进的必经之路。君不见那些一流poker选手都曾破产多次，所以我现在是处在黎明前的黑暗。

可惜这夜太长，那东方的鱼肚白总也不出现。原来曾经闪烁过的流星最近也没见到。这条poker之路注定是崎岖漫长的，在这旅途上独自跋涉也是相当困难的，所以我在这里以牌会友。大家一起研究牌局，希望能共同提高。最起码我们也可以分享一下bad beat的故事，让别人也承担一点痛苦嘛。

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| 赌博有害于身心健康 |
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Friday: 工作了一周，早就憋着一股劲准备大战一场。冒着绵绵阴雨，一路杀向rama。

5:30 Poker room里基本满员。把名字挂到waiting list上后，去买了个热狗和可乐。吃饱喝足，才能战斗。五分钟填饱肚子后，自己继续研究Michael Craig的The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King. 这本书讲述一个亿万富翁向拉斯维加斯顶级Poker选手挑战的真实故事。故事写得比田连元的评书还要精彩。

6:00等到了$1/$2 No Limit Hold’em的位子。我买进$120元筹码，先观察一下桌上的情形。Rama每张赌桌容纳11位选手，竞争者多，所以我额外保守谨慎，希望能够走运积累一些筹码先。

6:45二号座比我晚到五分钟的卷毛小伙子，通过Thin Value Bet, Successful Semi-Bluff + Bluff, and a Lucky Flop … flopped straight and dodged the bullets from two pair and flush draw by river，已经在三手牌内将$200的筹码变成了$1100。而我在筹码一路下滑到$60后，刚输掉了第一个buy-in，Pocket Qs run into Pocket Ks. 出师不利。

7:45 重新买入$130筹码一个小时后，我终于迎来了第一个breakthrough。Flopped set of Js。一个亚裔小伙子put me all-in with two pairs on turn。成功double up，扳回失地。

8:00带着$270筹码来到了$2/$5 No Limit Hold’em的桌子。这里对手的实力要更强一筹，不过风险与回报并存嘛。

9:30凭着solid的打法，我的筹码已长到$360。接下来就是我要和大家探讨的第一手牌。。。更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

go on -wanfish(fish); 2009-4-4 (#5168918@0)
第一手牌 86s, mid position -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-4 {1084} (#5168919@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛PRE-FLOP
==================================
My hand: 86 suited in spade at mid-position.
Early position players: 2 limpers.
Late positions players: tight, no many raises. Stack size $150-$400.
I called $5.

2 other players from late positions called.
Small blind called.

Big Blind raised to 4BB (big blind) $20.
Big Blind played a little passive in the past hour. Called a lot of raises and bets. Didn’t raise a lot.
Big Blind has about $400 chips.

Two limpers from early position called.
I called.
Two players from late position and small blind called.

Total 7 Players in the hand. Pot $140.

FLOP
==================================
A Q 4. Two Spade.
I have a flush draw now.

Small Blind checked.
Big Blind bet $40.
Two early limpers folded.

My Problem: what to do facing the $40 bet? Pot size is $140 + $40 = $180 now.
==================================
What would you do if you were me? Why?
What could Big Blind have pre-flop? Did the flop help him?
What should be my strategy on the turn?

希望各位高手踊跃讨论。:-)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

探讨一下 -gone123(如沐--心动尘埃落); 2009-4-4 {456} (#5169306@0)
我个人意见，因为通花的可能性，你可以跟40，
Small Blind checked. 我认为它应该没有大对，至少没有aa,so check to next round;
Big Blind bet $40.可能是aa;或者是qq44
你可以利用通花的可能性去beat big blind through his thought of impossibility.
当然了，40 vs 140 是我的控制范围，$2/$5 No Limit Hold’em的桌子。
风险控制在下一张；如果出现通花a,你要小心all-in陷阱,因为你的86太小了。if big blind all-in,不要指望river card,higher flush should be held by big blind.

嗯，the pre-flop raise + small bet into big field on flop smells really fishy. 我也怀疑他有一手很强的牌。但当时我想我的同花很有可能会胜，如果拿到的话。 -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-4 (#5169625@0)

Pre-folp, BB small raise meant he can't hold TT~AA because it's bad to allow too many limps. So, I guess mostly he was holding 99~22 /Ax..etc -whereismyid(到处找ID); 2009-4-4 {334} (#5170513@0)
So, after flop, his small bet meant that
1. scare A because of his small pairs
2. Paired As with small kicker

So, based on your stratage: If Floped A is spade, you should reraise to ppretend you hooked top pair A for turn bluff or river bluff.

if Floped A is not spade, you'd better just call for best value to draw him out.

我当时认为他不大可能有Qs or any pair under。If Qs-10s, maybe even 9s, he will raise much bigger to thin the field. If 8s-2s, most people would be happy to see a flop cheaply. I put him on As, Ks, or Big A. -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-5 (#5170738@0)

我在FLOP上的分析及选择 -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-5 {2677} (#5170749@0)
Analysis

The fact that he raised small but bet also small into big field made me think my opponent probably holds As, Ks, or Big A.

As/Ks: Some people obsess with As and Ks that they use a strategy to get as many people in as possible. I usually would not do that, as even as high as As and Ks, they usually do not fare well against 4-5 opponents, let alone 6. Now for this opponent, it is possible holdings.

Qs-9s: People usually would raise big enough to take down the pot pre-flop. Very unlikely holdings.

8s-2s: People usually would just call hoping to flop a set cheaply. Very unlikely holdings.

AK/AQ: Likely. To build the pot and hope to hit top pair and top kicker.

AJs/ATs: Likely. To build the pot and hope to hit the flop big … pair plus flush draw.

Any other holdings: very unlikely.

The A on the flop is a spade, along with the 4.

My options

Fold: Not an option any more without much action yet on the flush draw. $180: $40 … good odds.

Call: Natural choice. Good pot odds. Might have one or two more opponents in the pot further, which will give me even better odds.

But, I like Raise here (same as the option chosen by WhereIsMyID).

If my opponent has a strong holding as As or Big A. What he would do on the turn? The pot would be at least $140 + $40 (his bet) + $40 (my call) = $220. On the turn, he has to be concern about the obvious flush draw. He would at least bet $120 to deny my odds. Because of the implied odds, I probably will call that bet as well.

I showed a tight image, if he had noticed. My raise would represent Pocket 4s or A4s. He would be concerned with many possible holdings in above range. Therefore, I probably can get a free card on turn if no spade hits, especially if I can buy the button position. Well, it is not really free, just cheaper.

Plus, there is possibility he held Ks and tried to find out whether anyone has an A. The possibility is small. But my raise would find out whether this is true right away. He has to fold the cowboys like a lightening.

Actual Situation

Thus, I loudly announced my raise and put down $100 chips. 2.5 of my opponent’s bet. A strong and scary statement to my experienced opponent(s), as least I hoped that.

All players folded to BB. BB called.

Here is the Turn Card. J of diamond.

BB checked to me.

Dear friends, what would you do now? Take the free card as I planned, or continue to semi-bluff trying to take the pot now?

based on your analysis, this table was pretty tight. So, I raise turn to take away the pot if so -whereismyid(到处找ID); 2009-4-5 {250} (#5171239@0)
But, if BB is calling station and will fall in love with his TP at river. Then you may apply taking a free card to draw out BB at river(you will get paid off at river). I don't think he held AA to allow you get free turn card at this heavy draw pot.

This guy called a lot of raise and post flop bet in the past hour. He is not a tight player by anyone's definition. My thought was similir to yours. -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-6 (#5172522@0)

如果要表现得很强，就强到底，希望对方放弃。如果是我，我会再下超过三分之一odds的大注。如果对方也有一个同花，那你的牌却实显小了，如果他有一对A或Q，他的机会有10张拍成full house，你只有要超过三分之一甚至一半的下注他才有可能放弃。 -yangapple(yangapple); 2009-4-5 (#5171311@0)

I don't think he would fold a set no matter how much I bet. I didn't have too many chips left. -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-6 (#5172518@0)

I would fold after 4BB raise. and call with nice odd at turn -is4life(不咸不淡); 2009-4-5 (#5171274@0)

Hmm, a straight forward play ... would make future decisions easier. -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-6 (#5172520@0)

我在TURN上的分析及选择 -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-6 {3385} (#5172521@0)
Analysis

Things were going as planned.

I cut off all the players behind me + SB and got heads-up against the opponent in position. I got the aggressor to slow down and check to me. I also got some new information to digest.

His call meant he did not hold Ks. So he must have an A. Here is the further analysis of my opponent’s holding.

As: If he had trip As, he just crushed set of 4s or A4 two pairs on flop. It would be impossibly passive for him to just call my raise on flop and check to me on turn with a flush draw on board. Possibility is pretty small.

AQ: It is possible. He flopped big so bet small on flop, trying to build pot. He was afraid of the small raise on flop from a tight player. If I had 4s, he was seriously behind. Thus he just called the raise on flop and checked on turn.

But if I were him, I would lead out half to two-thirds of the pot on turn to find out where I was. After all, there was a possible flush draw on the flop. You did not see the tight player deploy the semi-bluff raise before, but it does not mean he does not know the technique and he does not have the guts to use it. The bottom line, you do not want to give a free card.

If my top two pairs were raised again on turn, I can safely throw it away.

AJs: Then the turn just gave my opponent 2 pairs. Analysis similar to AQ holding.

AK: My opponent has top pair A with K kicker and a gut-shot straight draw for 10.

A10s: My opponent has top pair A with 10 kicker and a gut-shot straight draw for K.

One thing to note here: the J would help at least half of my opponent’s holdings. It did not seem a good card for me.

My options

Check: I did not expect my opponent to fold on flop with my raise, because of my flop analysis. I planned to get a free card. Now you get the free card opportunity. There is a strong argument to take the opportunity.

How about semi-bluff betting on turn?

Suppose I continue to represent set of 4s or A4 two pairs. The pot is $140 + $100 + $100 = $340 now. I have $360 - $20 - $100 = $240 left. The reasonable betting for me would be $100 - $170. Lure my opponent in.

Pushing all-in would be uncool. Nobody would play a set that way at this level (You might want to try this at higher stake table). Your all-in push would really smell like a flush draw.

But with my opponent’s possible holdings, from the top pair + straight draw, two pairs, to remotely possible set. He probably would call. After all, if I had A4, he would have more outs to river me, if not beating me already.

Once he call my bet on turn, he would be pot-committed. I would not be able to bluff him out of the pot on river with the rest of $70 - $140 chips, if I miss the flush.

Thus, the turn card J just took away the semi-bluffing idea, because my opponent’s possible holdings and my chip stack.

Actual Situation

I thought about 15 seconds. Went with original plan to take a "free" card.

The river is a 6. Give me a useless pair of 6.

BB bet out three red chips – in total $15.

My friends, what would you do now? Fold, Call, Raise? Why?

Your turn check makes you not to bluff river if you are not sure that your oppo will fold his Ax, TT,99,88,77. On the other hand, it's not good idea to pretend you got Str8 or Triple due to your turn check. So... -whereismyid(到处找ID); 2009-4-6 {112} (#5172716@0)
I call his river $15 bet for Pot $140+his $15 due to good value in case he held 55, 33, 22, or other flush draw.

Since I ruled out Ks, I definitely did not think he would go that far with 5s. If he missed a draw, he would bet at least half of pot, like $170, to bluff my out of the pot. -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-6 (#5175111@0)

since your turn check, I will bet 10% of pot instead of check at river if I have nothing or 55~22 in case your missed draw with some pairs. I'm very happy that you fold your hand in this situation. -whereismyid(到处找ID); 2009-4-7 (#5175414@0)

Final Thoughts on the River -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-6 {3279} (#5175121@0)
Analysis

I missed. That was disappointing. Well, it comes once in every four times for a flush draw and it was my first draw tonight. I should not be too disappointed.

The opponent made a weird smallish bet. $15 into a $340 pot. What does he want to do here?

First, let’s see what he had observed. I raised him on the flop but checked in position on turn. It was typically the performance of a flush draw. Thus he knows his hand must be good now. It seems he wants to get some value out his winning hand.

Based on my analysis on turn, he must have at least a pair of As now. Thus I cannot call. What’s the point to call when you know you are beat? Save the $15 for the next fight. Or buy a beer.

Can I bluff him out of the point by a big raise? My check on the turn gave my hand away. The river raise will be weird and will be called. Not consistent.

One note here, it is sometimes a legitimate strategy to check a big hand in position when heads-up. However, usually I only deploy this when I play the opponents many times, so I can mix my play to throw them off once in a while. Out of context, I would not do that.

Back to the small bet, why it is so small? At poker table, weak means strong while strong means weak. I sensed that the BB really wanted me to pay him. A voice seems to scream: “Just give me a little something … as little as $15, you can see my cards”.

No, thanks.

Actual Situation

I thought for about 12 seconds. Threw my cards in the muck.

Then some reactions from the table.

An old Chinese guy. Probably from Hongkong. White hair, with Glasses. Friendly but pretty loose sometimes. He shouted, "What is going on here?!"

A solid small size guy on my left inquired: “Flush draw?”

Yes, it is too obvious to an experienced player. Since it is too obvious, I will admit it.

"Yes. I missed. I was thinking about a bluff. But I gave it up. "

The dealer just pushed the $340 pot to the BB. He heard the conversation. Still quietly, he showed two hole cards that are still in his hand towards me and the table:

AQ.

As if he was saying, "It is good that you did not bluff on the river."

That makes sense. He had a pretty good starting hand and he hit the best flop he could hope for … top two pairs. Well, a pair of Qs or a pair of As on the flop would be even better. But he would not get much actions.

His small bet on flop was to build pot. His last bet on river was to value bet.

I tapped the green felt. "Nice hand".

That was sincere. It was a nice hand indeed. I also appreciate that he showed me his cards to confirm my whole thinking process.

The nice hand comment is also to myself. I think I saved at least $60-$120 in the hand, by raising him on flop. I do not think any bluff attempt after that would push him off the hand.

On the other hand, by betting out on turn, the BB would have extracted at least another $100 from me.

Well, I still have some chips. Let’s shuffle and deal.

nice hand! -whereismyid(到处找ID); 2009-4-7 (#5175420@0)

如果我是你的话，可以跟一手看看turn，或者直接fold，但是我感觉big blind应该是也没有什么。。。但是我绝对不会chase flush的。。。 -mimilanlan(qwerty); 2009-4-15 (#5193426@0)

第二手牌, Pockets, mid-position -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-4 {1829} (#5168923@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛第一手牌是今晚我在$2/$5 game里的转折点。之后牌比较dry，flop和手里的牌总是不搭边，筹码一路下滑。

好不容易赢了一手two pairs。然后在11:20迎来了这一手牌。

PRE-FLOP
========
UTG (Under the Gun，Big Blind 下家) and UTG + 1 (Under the Gun 下家) limped with $5.

I looked at my card, pocket Qs (Q of diamond and Q of club).
Raised to $30.
My image: tight.
My remaining chips: $210.
All late positions players folded.

Small blind called.
Big blind folded.
UTG folded.
UTG + 1 called.

3 players in the hand. Pot size $100.

FLOP
==========
10 10 6, two hearts

两个对手checked to me. 我bet $50.

Small Blind pushed all in, in total $120. $70 more than my $50 bet. .
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

他然后站起来，嘴里念念叨叨，似乎如果不赢就准备走人。然后Dealer 提醒他，必须就座，手里的牌才有效。然后他坐下了。

Small Blind 来到牌桌上大约半个小时。并不是很有经验。他的第二手牌：在明显一个对手有flush的情况下，bet Trip Ks on the river (K on flop and river). 结果被令一个对手raise-all in. 这是明显的full-house. Small blind quickly called and lost his first $300.

三分钟前，他flopped Trp As, slowed played all the way. 一个亚裔女子catch runner-runner straight. 他输掉第二个$300 buy-in的一半，Small Blind 明显很上火。

Could he still be steaming?
Could he check-raise with a flush draw?
Could he have a 10?

UTG + 1 asked for chip count, then quickly called $120 bet.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UTG刚坐到这张桌子5分钟，年龄50-60岁，香港人。喜欢chase draw，不计pot odds。他doubled me up with my two pairs by chasing an A high flush draw. 然后他在turn 拿到straight，busted out a short stack.

他的chips现在比我多。

What he is chasing this time?

I have $160 left now.

朋友们，如果是我，你怎么办? Call, Fold, or Raise? Why?更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

再探讨 -gone123(如沐--心动尘埃落); 2009-4-4 {307} (#5169319@0)
Small Blind 应该是a flush draw，或者101066,不应该是101010，如果你的观察细致，我的判断准确。
你应该fold,因为你的筹码不过拼的，你最好的情况full house 应该是qqq1010,另外一种可能性qq101010不大可能会出现，如果你不fold,UTG + 1 确定会all-in before the river card appears,那样你的情况形如鸡肋，当断不断，必留后患。

我当时也觉得small blind有10的可能性不大，但是有。但他是否会play Trip 10s that strong? 也许他吸取了三分钟前的教训。你觉得UTG+1有10吗? -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-4 (#5169642@0)

call. 75% you were still ahead to UTG+1. don't care about SB -whereismyid(到处找ID); 2009-4-4 (#5170532@0)

我信邪，我会fold。对方手里有10的可能性并不小，如果那样的话你唯一的希望就是Q，何况对方已经all - in，我会fold。 -yangapple(yangapple); 2009-4-5 (#5171332@0)

Yes, most likely I was behind facing two opponents. -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-6 (#5175141@0)

有次网上我类似的情况, opp是pocket 6's, river is 10, 10 fullhouse q beat 10 fullhouse 6, lol -is4life(不咸不淡); 2009-4-5 (#5171338@0)

So your opponent outflopped you but you rivered him/her? ... good for you. Best hand wins. :) -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-6 (#5175139@0)

网址市什么？ -tyrsbw(体验人生百味); 2009-4-4 {66} (#5169064@0)
不过熬夜不好。

本人昨晚听了两首催眠曲，早早上床，睡得真香。呵呵

你是问Rama的网址? http://www.casinorama.com/ ... 刚起来，不过这风刮得敖敖得，没睡好。 -limithe(limithe); 2009-4-4 (#5169653@0)

谢谢。难道你睡的茅草屋？呵呵 -tyrsbw(体验人生百味); 2009-4-4 (#5170197@0)

有人认为打这种牌是技术不是赌博，如果你是单身尽管执迷。如果你有家庭，还是找点别的爱好吧，因为在你成为大师以前，你可能就己经妻离子散了。 -slowcook(慢热锅); 2009-4-7 (#5175296@0)

我在XB360上玩，每次我只要一All In，电脑就Fold，为此赢了不少钱，然后乐呵呵的睡觉 -binghongcha76(一只大猫); 2009-4-7 (#5175368@0)
hohooo... I used to play 6 tabling at Poker Star. Basically, what you need is instinct because you don't have enough time to deep think one table's hand. So, pattern & talent are most important to me. -whereismyid(到处找ID); 2009-4-7 (#5175439@0)

哥们，看看那个妻子的控诉。 -holdon(again); 2009-4-8 (#5177906@0)

@Manitoba

我在TURN上的分析及选择

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